DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled an analysis exploring the potential impact of a prolonged Iran–Israel–United States conflict on Turkish tourism, a crucial segment of the country’s economy. Utilizing DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator and drawing on data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025, the analysis conducted by founder Alper Tekin presents several scenarios for Türkiye, where tourism accounts for over 11 percent of GDP and supports around three million direct jobs. The country is geographically close to the conflict zone, with its top inbound markets like Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom situated within 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel axis.
The simulator’s scenarios do not predict outcomes but instead apply deterministic rules to existing data, generating narratives through a generative-AI layer. This ensures every numerical claim is supported by verifiable data, a feature Tekin refers to as “zero hallucinations.” In the event of a regional escalation, the simulator suggests that European leisure demand in Türkiye could suffer due to airspace disruptions or sanctions, with travelers from Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands more likely to postpone trips rather than cancel them. Conversely, business travel from the EU appears more resilient.
Another scenario examines the consequences of a significant drop in Russian tourists, Türkiye’s largest inbound market, potentially spurred by sanctions, payment issues, and ruble devaluation. The analysis predicts a 20 to 35 percent decline in Russian visitors over a year, impacting areas like Antalya and Muğla that heavily rely on Russian-charter operators. Additionally, the simulator considers the effects of a Turkish lira volatility shock tied to US-Iran tensions, which could temporarily boost dollar-based tourism receipts while reducing domestic leisure spending as locals adjust their budgets.
Tekin emphasizes that the platform is designed for pre-emptive planning, enabling destination managers and operators to explore possible scenarios before events unfold, rather than reacting after the fact. The detailed simulator outputs, which include vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and indicators, are available to credentialed media. These insights are complemented by DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 countries weekly across six tourism-related risk categories.
DataGreat’s comprehensive suite of tools, developed by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and headquartered in Edirne, Türkiye, supports the tourism sector with data-driven insights. The platform also features functionalities like a Persona Builder and Campaign Brief Generator, providing a robust framework for navigating the complexities of global tourism dynamics.