The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, a slight rise from its previous estimate of 3.0%, despite potential risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI) and mounting public debt. The new projection, however, remains below the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025, with the global economy expected to expand further to 3.4% in 2027.
The IMF attributes part of the economic resilience to investments in AI, which are helping mitigate the impact of higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions. However, this growth is not evenly distributed, as the United States and China dominate the market, accounting for more than three-quarters of the demand for imported computer chips and AI-related equipment.
Despite the optimistic growth forecast, the IMF warned of several risks to global financial stability. These include a potential correction in AI-related stock markets, rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats. The organization also noted the significant impact AI could have on employment, estimating that around 40% of jobs worldwide might be affected through changes in tasks, job quality, or employment levels.
Inflation is projected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027. This forecast assumes that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March and that demand for AI-related products will moderate.
Among major economies, the United States is expected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while China’s economy is projected to expand by 4.5% this year. India is set to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with an anticipated growth rate of 7% in 2026, down from 7.7% in 2025.
Emerging and developing economies are forecast to grow by 3.7% in 2026, accelerating to 4.4% in 2027. However, the Middle East and Central Asia face a more challenging outlook, with their economies expected to contract this year before recovering in 2027.
The IMF urged governments to take measures to strengthen public finances and manage rising debt levels, as borrowing costs remain high and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the global economic outlook.